Wang didn’t misread the room in Munich
When China reopened and resumed diplomatic activity, a narrative quickly built about a “Beijing charm offensive” meant to rebuild ties with a number of countries. Hopes were particularly high in Europe when it became clear that Wang Yi, the CPC’s top diplomat, would visit. But after Wang spent most of his time at the Munich Security Conference criticising the US – claiming that it does not want to see peace in Ukraine – some argued that Wang had completely “misread the room” and ruined Beijing’s attempt to “woo” the Europeans. But what if he didn’t misread the room? What if Wang had a different message he wanted to convey to a different audience?
Presenting an alternative world order to “the rest”
The EU is one of China’s largest trading partners. This makes it important to engage with officials in Brussels, Paris, Berlin and Rome – whom themselves have an interest in discussing trade and investment-related matters with Beijing. But the CPC also has priorities that arguably are more important to the party than protecting China’s relationship with the EU. Most notable is President Xi Jinping’s offer to the global south and non-aligned countries of an alternative to the US-led world order.
Since China’s reopening, Xi has travelled to Saudi Arabia and hosted leaders from Cambodia, Iran, the Philippines, Pakistan, Tanzania, Turkmenistan and Mongolia. This week he is welcoming the Belarusian leader, Aleksandr Lukashenko, but he has yet to speak to Volodymyr Zelensky. As noted by Ukraine’s charge d’affaires in Beijing, Zhanna Leshchynska, "if China is neutral, China should talk to both sides... But now we see China mostly talks to Russia.” Apart from Olaf Scholz’s and Penny Wong’s visits to Beijing, Wang’s trip to Europe – which of course finished with a stop in Moscow – is China’s first real engagement with “the west”.
In other words, it is clear whom Beijing wants to engage with and who its target audience is. A couple of weeks before Wang started his trip, Xi proudly declared in a widely publicised speech how Chinese-style modernisation has proven to be superior to its US alternative. During Wang’s trip, his colleague Qin Gang, the new foreign minister, presented a concept paper on Xi’s Global Security Initiative, which pushes back against hegemony and stresses the need to address challenges in the global south and beyond using Chinese-led platforms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. A paper called “US hegemony and its perils” was also presented by the foreign ministry while Wang was in Europe.
Beijing may still win despite its nondescript peace plan
Then came the peace plan, which mostly just repeated what has already been said. This should not have come as a surprise. Xi knows that he will never in the current environment be able to broker a deal that both sides will be happy with. After all, Ukraine wants Russia out of its territory, and Russia wants Ukraine to accept that a big portion of its landmass now belongs to Russia. It is also very likely that Xi knows he is not in a position to force Putin’s hand and get him to accept defeat.
This is why Beijing presented a peace plan that merely laid out a set of principles that more or less the entire world can agree on. It does not cost Xi anything to say nuclear war should be avoided and that a country’s sovereignty should be protected. Moreover, there are many state leaders – especially in the global south – who will support Chinese pushback against American and European use of sanctions.
It would of course be an enormous win for China if it managed to facilitate peace in Ukraine. But equally, creating an impression that China is the great power trying to broker a deal – and not the US – would in itself be a significant victory in Xi’s quest to reshape the world order.